Category Archives: Government Issues

the root of the problem

The Economy in 2023

The Economy in 2023

How was the economy during 2023? Looking at six key economic indicators it appears the results were not so bad compared to an average of the prior 20 years. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP increased by 2.5%, a bit above the 2% average. The inflation rate at 3.7% is still above the 2.5% average but improved significantly vs 2022. Unemployment at 3.4% is an all-time low. The S&P 500 improved 9.4% over the 12 months while the NASDAQ improved a whopping 43.4%. The wage increase was almost double the average. Not a bad year.

YearReal GDPInflationUnemploymentS&P 500NASDAQAVG wage
Growth * RateRate% change% changeIncrease *
20021.70%2.40%6.00%-22%-31.53%-1.40%
20032.80%1.90%5.70%29%50.01%0.50%
20043.90%3.30%5.40%11%8.59%1.40%
20053.50%3.40%4.90%49%1.37%0.20%
20062.80%2.50%4.40%16%9.52%1.80%
20072.00%4.10%5.00%54%9.81%2.5%
20080.10%0.10%7.30%-37%-40.54%2.2%
2009-2.60%2.70%9.90%26%43.89%-4.1%
20102.70%1.50%9.30%15%16.91%0.3%
20111.50%3.00%8.50%32%-1.80%1.6%
20122.30%1.70%7.90%14%15.91%0.8%
20131.80%1.50%6.70%1%38.32%0.5%
20142.30%0.80%5.60%12%13.40%1.3%
20152.70%0.70%5.00%22%5.73%0.8%
20161.70%2.10%4.70%-4%7.50%-0.6%
20172.30%2.10%4.10%22%28.24%1.5%
20182.90%1.90%3.90%18%-3.88%0.7%
20192.30%2.30%3.60%31%35.23%1.5%
2020-3.40%1.40%6.70%18%43.64%6.2%
20215.70%7.00%3.90%29%21.39%3.2%
20222.70%6.50%3.70%18%-33.10%2.6%
20232.50%3.70%3.40%9.4%43.42%2.1%
Average2.0%2.5%5.8%16.9%11.4%1.1%
w/o 2023
* Inflation adjusted

One more item to consider is the price of gas. The price of regular gas declined by 12% from December 2022 to December

 2023. Considering inflation adjustment, the gas price is no higher today than 20 years ago.

Reelection Strategy

Reelection Strategy

38% of voters say they are independent, 31% are Democrats and 26% are Republican. This only totals 95% so I’m not sure what happened to the other 5%? Among the 38% of independents 17% lean Democrat and 13% lean Republican. In total 48% of voters tend (but not always) vote Democrat and 39% vote Republican. The popular vote tends to support these numbers since in almost all Presidential elections the the Democratic candidate wins the popular vote. In our system, the popular vote does not count since the Electoral College determines the outcome. What matters is the outcome in each individual state.

Most states have a history of voting for Republicans (red states) or Democrats (blue states). Others are considered Swings (purple states).

purple statesAccording to the map the blue states control about 212 votes and the red states control 191 votes. The balance is then controlled by the 12 swing states (about 145 votes). I would suggest that several purple states lean red Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina while New Mexico, Virginia, and Colorado lean blue. That means 6 states will determine the outcome of most presidential elections: Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If you were a campaign manager where would you focus your efforts?

MJ 12 (just for fun or is it?)

Majestic 12, also known as MJ-12 for short, is a purported organization that appears in UFO conspiracy theories. The organization is claimed to be the code name of an alleged secret committee of scientists, military leaders, and government officials, formed in 1947 by an executive order by U.S. President Harry S. Truman to facilitate the recovery and investigation of alien spacecraft. The concept originated in a series of supposedly leaked secret government documents first circulated by ufologists in 1984. The FBI claims the documents are bogus and others claim the FBI claim is a cover-up.

The following individuals were described in the Majestic 12 documents as “designated members” of Majestic 12

Related to the alleged actions taken by MJ12 is a document titled SMO1-01 (a UFO Protocol Manual). The complete version of this manual can be seen at: https://www.specialoperationsmanual.com/the-manual/

If you find this of interest I would recommend watching Linda Moulton Howe’s presentation on Season 12 Episode 9 of the History Channel’s Ancient Aliens.   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Moulton_Howe