Reelection Strategy
38% of voters say they are independent, 31% are Democrats and 26% are Republican. This only totals 95% so I’m not sure what happened to the other 5%? Among the 38% of independents 17% lean Democrat and 13% lean Republican. In total 48% of voters tend (but not always) vote Democrat and 39% vote Republican. The popular vote tends to support these numbers since in almost all Presidential elections the the Democratic candidate wins the popular vote. In our system, the popular vote does not count since the Electoral College determines the outcome. What matters is the outcome in each individual state.

Most states have a history of voting for Republicans (red states) or Democrats (blue states). Others are considered Swings (purple states).

purple statesAccording to the map the blue states control about 212 votes and the red states control 191 votes. The balance is then controlled by the 12 swing states (about 145 votes). I would suggest that several purple states lean red Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina while New Mexico, Virginia, and Colorado lean blue. That means 6 states will determine the outcome of most presidential elections: Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If you were a campaign manager where would you focus your efforts?