COVID-19 Anomoliies and an Update

I have been tracking the COVID-19 status for over three weeks, and I have noticed a few interesting statistics. The first statistic is the meager German mortality rate, which is less than half of the worldwide average. I found one article that does an excellent job of explaining the reason, and it is not at all what I had imagined. We know that the vast majority of cases are mild and often not identified, but they can still transmit it to others. The report explained that The Germans had done an excellent job of identifying the persons that contracted the virus early on. They then traced the people that were in their sphere of influence and tested them. They then did the same with any they found to be infected. As a result, they are identifying many more cases than in most other countries. What this indicates that in other countries, there are many more cases than are being identified. So the issue is not a lower mortality rate, but the fact that they are identifying a higher ratio of cases.

The 2^nd  statistic is the meager recovery rate in the USA. All of the research that I have found says that this is not an accurate number, but has been a failure in our country to adequate follow up on the reported cases and record the outcome. While most other countries, other than the UK, can accomplish this, Why we cannot is a mystery.

The final statistic is the extremely high mortality rates in the four countries of France, Spain, Italy, and the UK. These countries account for over 54% of all of the deaths from COVID-19! My research has identified a few factors, such as an aging population and travelers from China, but none of these explain the anomaly adequately. I suspect there is another factor at play and that it will eventually be identified.

The following shows an update as of the end of the day on April 16th. I have added India, which has almost 1.4 Billion population. It will be important to watch their progress.

Date: April 16
	Location	Confirmed	Cases per	Recovered	Deaths	Death	New	Rate of	%
		Cases	1 Mil people			ratio	Cases	Increase	recovered
cases	Worldwide	2,159,450	278	549,592	145,568	6.7%	83,576	3.9%	25.5%
31.3%	United States	676,676	2,053	56,127	34,784	5.1%	30,008	4.4%	8.3%
8.6%	Spain	185,309	3,934	74,797	19,516	10.5%	6,599	3.6%	40.4%
7.8%	Italy	168,941	2,804	40,164	22,170	13.1%	2,667	1.6%	23.8%
6.4%	Germany	138,217	1,662	66,500	4,098	3.0%	2,543	1.8%	48.1%
5.0%	France	108,847	1,623	32,812	17,920	16.5%	2,633	2.4%	30.1%
4.8%	UK	103,093	1,552	??	13,729	13.3%	4,603	4.5%	#VALUE!
3.8%	China	82,692	59	77,944	4,632	5.6%	46	0.1%	94.3%
	India	13,387	10	1,749	437	3.3%	941	7.0%	13.1%
	New Zealand	1,086	218	816	11	1.0%	9	0.8%	75.1%
67.8%

There are several items worth noting. The seven countries with the most cases represent over 2/3rds of all the cases in the world. The USA has the most cases with over 31% of the total. The mortality rate in the USA has increased from 3.6% a week ago to 5.1%. Deaths in the USA represent 24% of the total deaths in the world. The good news is number of new daily cases in the USA seems to be flattening.

A Bit More on COVID-19

The virus can be contracted as quickly as two days and as long as 14 days after contact. The median term of the infection is about five days, but symptoms can last as long as 14 days.

Our country now represents 29 % of all of the COVID-19 cases in the world, and that % has been increasing daily. Six countries make up almost 2/3rds of all the cases. The mortality rate in the USA stands at 3.6 % while it is much higher in Spain, Italy & France. The top six countries now represent almost 2/3^rds of all the cases in the world. I have included Greece and New Zealand as examples of effective leadership in combating the virus. The overall mortality rate is very high at 6%, but it distorted by three very high rate countries. Taking them out of the totals lowers the over rate to just over 4%. One item of note is the low rate of recovery in the USA? The following chart shows the stats for the end of the day on the 9^th.

	Date: April 9
	Location	Confirmed	Cases per	Recovered	Deaths	Death	New	Rate of	%
		Cases	1 Mil people			ratio	Cases	Increase	recovered
							Daily
	Worldwide	1,605,548	206	356,161	95,808	6.0%	120,737	7.5%	22.2%
29.2%	United States	469,121	1423	26,448	16,676	3.6%	35,007	7.5%	5.6%
9.8%	Spain	157,022	3334	55,668	15,483	9.9%	8,802	5.6%	35.5%
8.9%	Italy	143,626	2384	28,470	18,279	12.7%	4,204	2.9%	19.8%
7.4%	Germany	118,235	1422	40,015	2,536	2.1%	4,939	4.2%	33.8%
5.4%	France	86,334	1287	21,254	12,210	14.1%	4,286	5.0%	24.6%
5.1%	China	81,907	58	77,455	3,336	4.1%	105	0.1%	94.6%
	Greece	1,955	182	269	89	4.6%			13.8%
	New Zealand	1,015	204	317	2	0.2%	0	0.0%	31.2%
65.8%

I am a bit of a nut when it comes to statistics. I don’t claim to be an expert, just an enthusiastic amateur. There have been many other credentialed persons who have attempted damage projections. I have made some of my own using the following assumptions: The daily rate of new cases will level out by the end of April, but the current increasing rate will continue until then. The mortality rate will top out at 4.1% at the end of the month. The daily rate of cases will decrease and go to near zero by June 30^th.  I started tracking this two weeks ago and so far the actual is following very close to the projection. The real is a bit under on the number of cases, but a bit over on the number of deaths. I project 94,000 deaths on July 1^st.