A Bit More on COVID-19
The virus can be contracted as quickly as two days and as long as 14 days after contact. The median term of the infection is about five days, but symptoms can last as long as 14 days.
Our country now represents 29 % of all of the COVID-19 cases in the world, and that % has been increasing daily. Six countries make up almost 2/3rds of all the cases. The mortality rate in the USA stands at 3.6 % while it is much higher in Spain, Italy & France. The top six countries now represent almost 2/3rds of all the cases in the world. I have included Greece and New Zealand as examples of effective leadership in combating the virus. The overall mortality rate is very high at 6%, but it distorted by three very high rate countries. Taking them out of the totals lowers the over rate to just over 4%. One item of note is the low rate of recovery in the USA? The following chart shows the stats for the end of the day on the 9th.
| Date: April 9 | |||||||||
| Location | Confirmed | Cases per | Recovered | Deaths | Death | New | Rate of | % | |
| Cases | 1 Mil people | ratio | Cases | Increase | recovered | ||||
| Daily | |||||||||
| Worldwide | 1,605,548 | 206 | 356,161 | 95,808 | 6.0% | 120,737 | 7.5% | 22.2% | |
| 29.2% | United States | 469,121 | 1423 | 26,448 | 16,676 | 3.6% | 35,007 | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| 9.8% | Spain | 157,022 | 3334 | 55,668 | 15,483 | 9.9% | 8,802 | 5.6% | 35.5% |
| 8.9% | Italy | 143,626 | 2384 | 28,470 | 18,279 | 12.7% | 4,204 | 2.9% | 19.8% |
| 7.4% | Germany | 118,235 | 1422 | 40,015 | 2,536 | 2.1% | 4,939 | 4.2% | 33.8% |
| 5.4% | France | 86,334 | 1287 | 21,254 | 12,210 | 14.1% | 4,286 | 5.0% | 24.6% |
| 5.1% | China | 81,907 | 58 | 77,455 | 3,336 | 4.1% | 105 | 0.1% | 94.6% |
| Greece | 1,955 | 182 | 269 | 89 | 4.6% | 13.8% | |||
| New Zealand | 1,015 | 204 | 317 | 2 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 31.2% | |
| 65.8% | |||||||||
I am a bit of a nut when it comes to statistics. I don’t claim to be an expert, just an enthusiastic amateur. There have been many other credentialed persons who have attempted damage projections. I have made some of my own using the following assumptions: The daily rate of new cases will level out by the end of April, but the current increasing rate will continue until then. The mortality rate will top out at 4.1% at the end of the month. The daily rate of cases will decrease and go to near zero by June 30th. I started tracking this two weeks ago and so far the actual is following very close to the projection. The real is a bit under on the number of cases, but a bit over on the number of deaths. I project 94,000 deaths on July 1st.