COVID-19 Anomoliies and an Update
I have been tracking the COVID-19 status for over three weeks, and I have noticed a few interesting statistics. The first statistic is the meager German mortality rate, which is less than half of the worldwide average. I found one article that does an excellent job of explaining the reason, and it is not at all what I had imagined. We know that the vast majority of cases are mild and often not identified, but they can still transmit it to others. The report explained that The Germans had done an excellent job of identifying the persons that contracted the virus early on. They then traced the people that were in their sphere of influence and tested them. They then did the same with any they found to be infected. As a result, they are identifying many more cases than in most other countries. What this indicates that in other countries, there are many more cases than are being identified. So the issue is not a lower mortality rate, but the fact that they are identifying a higher ratio of cases.
The 2nd statistic is the meager recovery rate in the USA. All of the research that I have found says that this is not an accurate number, but has been a failure in our country to adequate follow up on the reported cases and record the outcome. While most other countries, other than the UK, can accomplish this, Why we cannot is a mystery.
The final statistic is the extremely high mortality rates in the four countries of France, Spain, Italy, and the UK. These countries account for over 54% of all of the deaths from COVID-19! My research has identified a few factors, such as an aging population and travelers from China, but none of these explain the anomaly adequately. I suspect there is another factor at play and that it will eventually be identified.
The following shows an update as of the end of the day on April 16th. I have added India, which has almost 1.4 Billion population. It will be important to watch their progress.
| Date: April 16 | |||||||||
| Location | Confirmed | Cases per | Recovered | Deaths | Death | New | Rate of | % | |
| Cases | 1 Mil people | ratio | Cases | Increase | recovered | ||||
| cases | Worldwide | 2,159,450 | 278 | 549,592 | 145,568 | 6.7% | 83,576 | 3.9% | 25.5% |
| 31.3% | United States | 676,676 | 2,053 | 56,127 | 34,784 | 5.1% | 30,008 | 4.4% | 8.3% |
| 8.6% | Spain | 185,309 | 3,934 | 74,797 | 19,516 | 10.5% | 6,599 | 3.6% | 40.4% |
| 7.8% | Italy | 168,941 | 2,804 | 40,164 | 22,170 | 13.1% | 2,667 | 1.6% | 23.8% |
| 6.4% | Germany | 138,217 | 1,662 | 66,500 | 4,098 | 3.0% | 2,543 | 1.8% | 48.1% |
| 5.0% | France | 108,847 | 1,623 | 32,812 | 17,920 | 16.5% | 2,633 | 2.4% | 30.1% |
| 4.8% | UK | 103,093 | 1,552 | ?? | 13,729 | 13.3% | 4,603 | 4.5% | #VALUE! |
| 3.8% | China | 82,692 | 59 | 77,944 | 4,632 | 5.6% | 46 | 0.1% | 94.3% |
| India | 13,387 | 10 | 1,749 | 437 | 3.3% | 941 | 7.0% | 13.1% | |
| 1,086 | 218 | 816 | 11 | 1.0% | 9 | 0.8% | 75.1% | ||
| 67.8% |
There are several items worth noting. The seven countries with the most cases represent over 2/3rds of all the cases in the world. The USA has the most cases with over 31% of the total. The mortality rate in the USA has increased from 3.6% a week ago to 5.1%. Deaths in the USA represent 24% of the total deaths in the world. The good news is number of new daily cases in the USA seems to be flattening.