The most likely keys to the 2020 Presidential Election

The most likely keys to the 2020 Presidential Election

Will President Trump achieve re-election? In my view, there are only three states that will determine the outcome.  Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were all states that Trump carried in 2016, but each by slim margins. If the Democratic nominee carries all 3 states then that person will be elected.

Wisconsin 2016: margin of victory was23,000 votes, less than .8%     10 electoral votes

Michigan 2016:  margin of victory was 11,000 votes, less than .3%      16 electoral votes

Pennsylvania 2016: margin of victory was 44,000 votes, less than .7%  20  electoral votes

Trump won 304 votes in 2016. These 46 votes would have given Mrs. Clinton a victory with 283. If Trump is able to retain one of these states then he will likely be reelected.

There are few other states where the Democrats have a very slight chance to flip the results.

Arizona – Trump margin of Victory  3.5%

Florida –   Trump margin of Victory  1.2%

North Carolina –  Trump margin of Victory  3.7%

On the other hand, there are a few states that the Reps have a chance to flip.

New Hampshire – Trump lost by .4% (best chance to flip)

Nevada-  Trump lost by  2.4%

Current polls show that all of the top polling Democratic candidates are running ahead in 2020. However, the election is over 10 months away and we also know that polls are often wrong.