The 2020 Election

Out of curiosity, I have been tracking the polls and betting odds on the election for all of 2020. Most people know that both the polls and the bettors missed the mark in 2016. The polls did not miss it since they projected that Clinton would win by a 3% margin, and she did win the popular vote by 2.8 million votes. The mistake was in not focusing on the Electoral College where small margins in three states determined the outcome. The three states and the Trump margins’ of victory were: Michigan .3%, Pennsylvania .7%, and Wisconsin .8%.

This election has been much more focused on polling in individual states. The following shows the status of both the polls and the betting odds as of October 26^th. Where there was more than one poll during a month, I have used the average. Polls have a + or – 3% margin of error.

State EC votes 2016 Margin Polls: Jan Oct Vegas odds on 10/15 Michigan 16 Trump by .3% Biden +5% Biden +5.5% Biden favored N Hampshire 4 Clinton by .4% Biden +5% Biden +10% Biden Favored Wisconsin 10 Trump by .8% Biden +3% Biden +3% Biden slightly favored Pennsylvania 20 Trump by .7% Biden +5% Biden +7% Biden slightly favored Florida 29 Trump by 1.2% Biden +1% Biden + 1.5% even Minnesota 10 Trump by 1.5% Biden +8% Biden + 5.5% Biden favored Nevada 6 Clinton by 1.5% Biden +3% Biden + 3.5% Biden favored Maine 4 Clinton by 3% Biden +3% Biden + 10% Biden favored N. Carolina 15 Trump by 3.7% Biden +1% Biden +.5% Trump slightly favored Arizona 11 Trump by 3.5% Trump +2% Biden +1% Biden v slight favorite Ohio 18 Trump by 9.1% even Trump slight favorite Texas 38 Trump by 9% Trump +1.5% Trump favored Iowa 6 Trump by 9.5% Biden +1.5% Trump favored all remaining states should have the same outcome in 2020 as experienced in 2016.

If the polls are correct then Biden should win with a comfortable margin. If the bettors are accurate then Biden would still win, by by a slight margin .

Go to the following link and you can use the map to make your own prediction for the outcome of the 2020 election that is now less than a week away:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html