The 2020 Election
Out of curiosity, I have been tracking the polls and betting odds on the election for all of 2020. Most people know that both the polls and the bettors missed the mark in 2016. The polls did not miss it since they projected that Clinton would win by a 3% margin, and she did win the popular vote by 2.8 million votes. The mistake was in not focusing on the Electoral College where small margins in three states determined the outcome. The three states and the Trump margins’ of victory were: Michigan .3%, Pennsylvania .7%, and Wisconsin .8%.
This election has been much more focused on polling in individual states. While there are still 3 ½ weeks remaining, the polls will likely change, but the following chart shows the status of both the polls and the bettors as of October 09th. Where there was more than one poll during a month, I have used the average. Polls have a + or – 3% margin of error.
|Key state election||Trump v.||Biden|
|State||margin||votes||Sep||Oct||As of October 4|
|2||N. Hamphire||0.4%||4||8%||9.0%||Biden Favored|
|3||Wisconsin||0.8%||10||3%||5.0%||Biden slight favorite|
|4||Pennsylvania||0.7%||20||6%||8.0%||Biden slight favorite|
|9||N. Carolina||3.7%||15||1%||2.0%||Trump slight favorite|
|10||Arizona||3.5%||11||3%||3.0%||Biden slight favorite|
|Subtotal EC votes||187|