Facts, Beliefs & Feelings
In Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2017, 37% of registered voters identified as independents, 33% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. These are survey “facts” which I assume carry the standard tolerance of + or – 3%.
These facts dictate that neither party will be successful without a near majority of the independent vote support. Finding out what the major issue are for the Independent voters would be a key to winning?
I tend to identify with facts when making decisions including voting decisions. I realize that both beliefs and feelings tend to carry more weight with most voters. For the average person collecting the “facts” is simply not in the cards for a variety of reasons that could well be a topic for a separate posting.
I fear that the majority of voters, regardless of party or independent affiliation are “single issue” voters. The best example of this is the right to life vs abortion issue. My guess is that at least 1/3 of the voters (& likely more) will vote for a candidate based on his or her stance on this one issue, even if the candidate is not sincere about their stance. The preferred candidate might be of despicable character or be way off target on most other issues, but that will not matter.
If the preceding is true then it really narrows down the voting targets. Attempting to appeal to the to other than your party will not be financially productive since 90 – 95 % of Democrats will not stray from their party and the same will hold true for Republicans.
Keeping in mind that most likely 1/3 of the independents are also single- issue voters the target voter prospect is now in the range 23 – 24%. If I was a campaign manager, I would focus on this group in an effort to understand their top 2 – 3 issues since it will likely be the key to winning.
The pundants claim that there are 3 key states that that will determine the outcome of the 2020 Presidential race: Wisconsin, Michigan & Ohio and that the Democratic candidate will likely need to carry all 3 to claim victory.