Close Presidential Elections
How close was the last Presidential Election? What many people do not realize is that it was only the 13th closest (12 prior elections were closer).
Rank | Year | Winner | Number of electors voting | Normalized victory margin | Percentage | ||
total | winner | runner-up | |||||
(c) | (w) | (r) | |||||
59 | 1824 | John Quincy Adams | 261 | 99 | 84 | Decided by House vote | 37.93% |
58 | 1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes | 369 | 185 | 184 | 0.003 | 50.14% |
57 | 2000 | George W. Bush | 537 | 271 | 266 | 0.009 | 50.47% |
56 | 1796 | John Adams | 138[b] | 71 | 68 | 0.029 | 51.45% |
55 | 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | 531 | 277 | 254 | 0.043 | 52.17% |
54 | 1800 | Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr (tie) | 138 | 73 | 65 | Decided by House vote | 52.90% |
53 | 2004 | George W. Bush | 538 | 286 | 251 | 0.063 | 53.16% |
52 | 1884 | Grover Cleveland | 401 | 219 | 182 | 0.092 | 54.61% |
51 | 1976 | Jimmy Carter | 538 | 297 | 240 | 0.104 | 55.20% |
50 | 1968 | Richard Nixon | 538 | 301 | 191 | 0.119 | 55.95% |
49 | 1848 | Zachary Taylor | 290 | 163 | 127 | 0.124 | 56.21% |
48 | 1960 | John F. Kennedy | 537 | 303 | 219 | 0.128 | 56.42% |
47 | 2016 | Donald Trump[d] | 538 | 304 | 227 | 0.13 | 56.51% |
An interesting fact is that four elections were not decided by popular vote but (as by law) by the electoral college. All four were won by Republicans. About 38% of all registered voters are Democrats, 29% are Republicans and 33% are either “Other” or Independents.
The Electoral College gives an advantage to smaller states since the formula allows each three electoral votes regardless of population. The following chart:
House | Electoral | ||||||
Rank | State | Population | Seats | Votes | Red | Blue | |
1 | 52 | Wyoming | 581,381 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
2 | 51 | 647,064 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
3 | 50 | 671,803 | 1* | 3 | 3 | ||
4 | 49 | 733,583 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
5 | 48 | 779,261 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
6 | 47 | 909,824 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
7 | 46 | 1,018,396 | 1 | 3 | 3 | ||
8 | 45 | 1,093,734 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
9 | 44 | 1,122,867 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
10 | 43 | 1,385,340 | 2 | 4 | purple | purple | |
11 | 42 | 1,395,231 | 2 | 4 | purple | purple | |
12 | 41 | 1,440,196 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
13 | 40 | 1,775,156 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
14 | 39 | 1,939,033 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
15 | 38 | 1,967,923 | 3 | 5 | 5 | ||
16 | 37 | 2,113,344 | 3 | 5 | 5 | ||
17 | 36 | 2,937,150 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ||
18 | 35 | 2,940,057 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ||
19 | 34 | 3,045,637 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ||
20 | 33 | 3,177,772 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ||
21 | 32 | 3,200,517 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ||
22 | 30 | 3,380,800 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ||
37,674,688 | 95 | 59 | 28 | ||||
Total US | 331,449,281 | 538 | |||||
% of Total | 11.4% | 17.7% |
11.4% of the population has 17.7% of the votes.
The electoral provides an advantage to Republicans. My question is how well represented are the 1/3 of the registered voters that are not either Democrat or Republican? I have often heard the quip “If you don’t vote for either of the major parties you are throwing your vote away”.